User Manual

1. About This App

The Deriv Analytics Terminal is a statistical analysis workbench for Deriv synthetic indices (Volatility 10, 25, 50, 75, 100). It streams live ticks over Deriv's public WebSocket API, runs frequentist probability estimates in the browser, and surfaces edges with 95% confidence intervals.

It does not predict the market and does not guarantee outcomes. Every number you see is a sample-based estimate with quantified uncertainty. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

2. Getting Started

You can browse the entire app without an account — Deriv's public ticks endpoint requires no auth. Connect an account only when you want to see your balance or place demo trades.

1. Open the sidebar and click Deriv Account.
2. Click Connect with Deriv. You'll be redirected to oauth.deriv.com.
3. Approve access. You'll be returned to the app with your accounts loaded.
4. Switch to a Virtual (VR…) account from the account switcher. Real accounts are blocked from trading by design.

3. Core Concepts You'll See Everywhere

Rule of thumb: never act on a large edge with a wide CI. A narrow CI + small edge often beats a wide CI + large edge.

4. Overview (/)

The landing dashboard. Loads Deriv's active symbols first, then shows the selected live tick stream, TPS, connection status, digit distribution and the current top-line probabilities across all contract families.

• Header dot: green = live, amber = connecting, red = offline.
• TPS is ticks per second observed over the last few seconds.
• Digit bars are the raw last-digit histogram over the active window.

5. Digit Analyzer (/digits)

Deep dive on last-digit distribution. Shows counts, empirical probabilities, and CI per digit, plus an EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) that biases toward recent ticks.

Use it to spot digits that are running hot or cold relative to the 10% baseline.

6. Matches / Differs (/matches-differs)

Per-digit Matches probability (contract wins if last digit equals target) and its complement Differs. Baseline is 10% for Matches, 90% for Differs. Look at CI-lo vs baseline, not the point estimate.

7. Over / Under (/over-under)

Probability that the next tick's last digit is over (or under) a chosen threshold. Baseline shifts with the threshold — the panel computes it for you.

8. Rise / Fall (/rise-fall)

Probability that the next tick is strictly higher (Rise) or lower (Fall) than the previous. Baseline is 50%. Equal ticks are excluded from the count.

9. Backtester (/backtester)

Runs a saved strategy against the accumulated tick history to estimate hit rate, average payout, and equity curve. Use it to sanity-check any rule before enabling it in the Paper Bot.

1. Configure contract, target, window, CI-lo threshold, and stake.
2. Run backtest. Read hit rate, expected value, and drawdown.
3. Save & Apply — the same rule is pushed to the Paper Bot.

10. Watchlist (/watchlist)

Track multiple Volatility indices in a single grid. Each card opens its own WebSocket stream and shows live probability plus a rolling 120-sample history chart with CI band.

• Add/remove symbols with the toolbar.
• Selection persists in localStorage.
• History band widens as sample size shrinks — visual sanity check for uncertainty.

11. Market Scanner (/scanner)

Subscribes to every Volatility index, extracts opportunities across all contract families, filters them, and ranks by edge (CI-lo above baseline). The fastest way to find where a real anomaly is currently sitting.

Filters: Window (ticks), Min sample n, Min edge (pp), and Contract family.

Strategy presets auto-map any qualifying signal to a full trade ticket (contract, target digit, stake, duration). Built-ins: Conservative Digits, Scalper Rise/Fall, Digit Sniper.

1. Pick an Active trade preset.
2. Rows that match the preset get a highlighted Trade button.
3. Click Trade → confirmation dialog shows mapped stake, duration, target, edge, and n.
4. Stage & open ticket → routes to /trade with fields pre-filled and a Staged banner. Press Buy to confirm.

12. Paper Bot (/paper-bot)

Simulates trades from the live tick stream. No real orders. Tracks P/L, win rate, max drawdown and equity curve for the active strategy. Ideal for burning in a rule for hours before staking a cent.

13. AI Insights (/ai-insights)

Uses the Lovable AI Gateway to generate structured commentary on current bias, momentum and notable digits. Every claim is anchored to the same statistical snapshot the panels display.

Also includes: Advanced Statistics panel (Shannon entropy, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation, EV — all with 95% CIs and uncertainty badges), Risk Calculator (fixed-fractional and optional Kelly sized against your live balance), and PDF/CSV export of the current snapshot.

14. Alerts (/alerts)

Two flavours: baseline probability alerts (fire when CI-lo crosses a threshold) and AI Alerts (fire only when edge AND uncertainty conditions are both met, with optional 'require affordable' gating against your live balance). Rules persist in localStorage. Notifications use toasts — keep the tab open.

15. Deriv Account (/account)

OAuth via oauth.deriv.com using public App ID 4714 (read-only scope). Displays live balance, name, currency, country and lets you switch between linked accounts. Disconnect wipes tokens from localStorage. Tokens never leave your browser.

16. Live Trade — Demo Only (/trade)

Places real orders on Deriv's demo environment for Rise/Fall, Even/Odd, Matches/Differs, Over/Under. Configurable stake, ticks duration and target digit. Open contracts stream via proposal_open_contract and settle in place with P/L.

Hard guardrail: the Buy button is disabled unless the currently authorized account is Virtual (starts with VR). Real accounts are refused at the hook level too.

17. Glossary

18. Troubleshooting

19. Design Philosophy

Every visible probability is sample-based and comes with a confidence band. Point estimates are decoration; the CI-lo and n are the signal. The app is deliberately built to make you doubt small samples and wide bands, not to sell you certainty.