AI Insights

Simulated sizing — no orders are placed on your Deriv account.

Current EV (even-money): +0.000 · CI +0.000–+0.000 · n=0

Plain-language reference for every statistic on this page. All values are descriptive summaries of the current tick window — none of them predict future outcomes.

Entropy (digits)

H = −Σ pᵢ · log₂(pᵢ)

Measures the unpredictability of the last-digit distribution across the window. Perfectly uniform digits give log₂(10) ≈ 3.322 bits. Values close to the maximum mean digits are effectively random; lower values mean a few digits dominate and there is exploitable skew.

Digit variance

Var(d) = E[(d − μ)²]

Variance of the last-digit values in the window. For a uniform distribution over 0–9 the theoretical variance is 8.25. Much lower variance indicates clustering around the mean; much higher variance indicates bimodal behaviour at the extremes.

Δprice variance

Var(Δp) = E[(Δp − μ)²]

The variance of consecutive price differences. Its square root is the per-tick standard deviation σ, a common volatility proxy. Rising Δprice variance means the market is making larger swings per tick.

Lag-1 autocorrelation

r = Cov(Δpₜ, Δpₜ₋₁) / (σ_t · σ_{t−1})

Correlation between successive price changes. Positive values suggest momentum (moves tend to continue in the same direction); negative values suggest mean-reversion (up moves are followed by down moves). Values close to zero mean successive ticks are essentially independent.

Rise probability

P(rise) = rises / (rises + falls)

Empirical probability the next tick closes higher, computed as rises divided by total directional moves. Ties (Δprice = 0) are excluded. Baseline for a fair symmetric market is 50%.

Expected value (Rise, 1.95×)

EV = p·(payout − 1) + (1 − p)·(−1)

Expected profit per 1-unit stake assuming the observed rise probability holds and the payout on a win is 1.95×. Positive values indicate a theoretical edge given current data; negative values indicate the house edge is intact. This is descriptive, not a prediction.

Rolling rise probability

Splits the window into equal buckets and plots the rise-probability inside each. Useful for spotting drift: a rising line means directional bias is strengthening; a flat line near 50% means the market is behaving symmetrically over time.